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Old February 3rd, 2010, 02:00 PM   #1
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Default TM - Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I am planning on shorting or buying puts on Toyota. What do you guys think?

Key stats and ratios
Q3 (Sep '09) 2009
Net profit margin 1.79% -2.45%
Operating margin 1.28% -2.25%
EBITD margin - 5.04%
Return on average assets 1.12% -1.64%
Return on average equity 0.87% -3.98%
Employees 322,650

Company website: http://www.toyota.com/

Tomorrow is their conference call

Reason why I am thinking about shorting is

Toyota Motor Corporation To Recall Seven Models In Mexico For Gas Pedal Revision-DJ9:42am EST
Dow Jones reported that the Mexican unit of Toyota Motor Corporation will begin next week calling in seven models for revision of gas pedals that have led the Japanese auto maker to recall cars in U.S., Canada, China and Europe. In a statement late, Toyota Motor Corporation said that so far in Mexico it hasn't had any reports of sticky accelerator pedals, but will conduct the revision on recent models of the RAV4, Matrix, Camry, Highlander, Tundra, Sequoia and Corolla. Toyota Mexico said it will begin contacting customers on February 8 to bring their vehicles in for revision, and where necessary will replace a pedal part. Toyota Motor Corporation said that based on its investigations and reports from other countries, in the worst case the pedal returns slowly to its original position and that there have been no cases of sudden acceleration.
Toyota Motor Corporation Asked To Probe Possible Brake Defect In Prius-WSJ
6:22am EST
The Wall Street Journal reported that Japan's transport ministry asked Toyota Motor Corporation to investigate 14 complaints it had received related to the newest Prius hybrid model. In Japan, the transport ministry confirmed there was an accident last July in Chiba prefecture, just outside of Tokyo, in which a Prius with allegedly faulty brakes rear-ended a car stopped at a red light, which in turn rear-ended two other

Toyota Motor Corporation's Toyota South Africa Says May Be Included In Vehicle Recall-DJ
2:02am EST
Dow Jones reported that the South African arm of Toyota Motor Corporation said some of the vehicles it has sold may be involved in the expanded recall of its parent company. Toyota this week said it intended to expand a recall of vehicles in the U.S. to other areas of the world. The U.S. recall relates to the accelerator pedal which may be slow to turn to the idle position or remain open.
Chesley Files Class Action In Ohio Against Toyota Motor Corporation
Tuesday, 2 Feb 2010 07:55pm EST

Stanley M. Chesley from the Cincinnati, Ohio-based law firm of Waite, Schneider, Bayless & Chesley Co., L.P.A. announced that it has filed a major class action lawsuit against Toyota Motor Corporation and other Toyota affiliates. The case is based on the sudden acceleration defect in millions of Toyota automobiles that has caused injuries and deaths. The lawsuit was filed in the Hamilton County Court of Common Pleas in Cincinnati, Ohio. It alleges fraudulent concealment, breach of warranties, and breach of contracts. Chesley alleges that Toyota misrepresented the problem as being caused by floormats and has still not corrected it. In addition to seeking compensatory and punitive damages, Chesley requested and obtained a Temporary Restraining Order to prevent Toyota's concealment or destruction of records based in part on an admission by a Toyota attorney that Toyota hid records in a number of cases involving injuries and deaths from rollovers. Chesley's co-counsel, Robert Steinberg, stated that their expert advised them Toyota failed to utilize fail safe mechanisms used by most manufacturers to prevent sudden acceleration. Until the problem is completely fixed, Chesley says Toyota should compensate its customers, who now have to carry the burden of the lost value, by making their loan and lease payments.

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...20100203112200

Toyota Crisis Mounts as U.S. Steps Up Pressure to Fix Vehicles

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood stepped up pressure on Toyota Motor Co. to fix defects that have caused the recall of millions of vehicles because they may suddenly accelerate, causing drivers to lose control.

LaHood told reporters in Washington he planned to call Toyota President Akio Toyoda “and explain to him that this is serious business.” LaHood also told a House panel that drivers should stop driving the recalled vehicles, a comment he later called a misstatement.

The remarks underscore a growing crisis at Toyota that has caused it to lose $29.5 billion in market value since the current recalls began and has tarnished its reputation for quality.

“Up until the last couple days that we had all expected the consumer hit wouldn’t be as serious as the media hit they were taking,” said Wes Brown, an analyst with market research firm Iceology in Los Angeles. “Now things may start to shift that image hit to the consumer side that had been steadfastly loyal. They are really starting to run the risk of escalating things tremendously.”

LaHood told a congressional panel this morning that owners of recalled cars should “stop driving it and take it to a Toyota dealer.”

“What I said in there was obviously a misstatement,” LaHood told reporters later. “If you own one of these cars, take it to the dealer. If you are in doubt, take it to the dealer and have them fix it.”

Toyota said this week it would fix the defect by having dealers install shims in accelerators. LaHood said the government is investigating to see whether an electronic throttle system is the cause, as at least seven lawsuits allege.

Shares Decline

Toyota’s American depositary receipts, each representing two ordinary shares, fell $4.25, or 5.4 percent, to $73.93 at 12:54 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The ADRs tumbled to a 10-month intraday low, touching $71.90, after the remarks to “stop driving” that LaHood later recanted.

Before his testimony, LaHood told reporters in Washington he will phone Toyoda to be certain his agency “pushed them over the line” so that Toyota is doing all it can to resolve defects.

Separately, the Toyota City, Japan-based carmaker has been ordered by Japan’s government to investigate brake-related problems with the latest version of its Prius hybrid car, the nation’s transportation ministry said today.

The ministry said it has received 14 complaints related to Prius brakes. It has also asked other carmakers to look into similar reports. Such requests are “routine,” said Masaya Ota, an official in the ministry’s recall division.

Sticky Pedals

Toyota began shipping steel plates to U.S. dealers on Feb. 1 as a fix for sticky gas pedals that have caused the carmaker to recall about 2.57 million vehicles in the U.S. and Canada.

“We know what the problem is,” Jim Lentz, Toyota’s president of U.S. sales, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Feb. 1. “We have the fix.”

The U.S. recall for pedals that stick applies to model years 2009-2010 RAV4, 2010 Highlander and 2008-2010 Sequoia sport-utility vehicles, 2009-2010 Corolla and 2005-2010 Avalon sedans, some 2007-2010 Camry sedans, 2009-2010 Matrix hatchbacks, and 2007-2010 Tundra pickups, according to Toyota.

Toyota also has recalled and plans to fix about 5.6 million Toyota- and Lexus-brand cars and trucks in the U.S. and Canada because of floor mats that might trap gas pedals and cause vehicles to speed out of control. Some Toyota brand vehicles are affected by both types of recalls.

The investigation of the Prius in Japan could undermine sales in Toyota’s home market, where it hasn’t recalled any vehicles due to the sudden-acceleration issue. The model was Japan’s best-selling vehicle in 2009.

Prius the ‘Flagship’

“The Prius is Toyota’s flagship model, its key to the future,” said Ashvin Chotai, managing director of London-based Intelligence Automotive Asia Ltd., a consulting company. “If that model gets tainted, that would suggest Toyota’s crisis has moved on to the next level.”

In the U.S., the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, part of the Transportation Department, is examining the electronics of automakers including Toyota in response to complaints, LaHood told reporters today. Among the questions is whether electromagnetic interference from power lines could affect the computerized systems that help run today’s vehicles, he said.

“We will continue our investigations into all aspects of these vehicles, including the electronics,” LaHood said. “We’re going to hold Toyota’s feet to the fire.”

Toyota has said it ruled out electronics as a cause of sudden acceleration in its cars and trucks.

Lawsuits Filed

At least 15 lawsuits seeking class action status have been filed against Toyota on the acceleration issue, and seven of them claim an electronic throttle system called ETCS-i is at fault instead of the pedals.

In cars with the ETCS-i system, the engine’s throttle is controlled by electronic signals, which are sent from a sensor that detects how far the gas pedal is depressed. The signals are transmitted to a computer module that controls how much the throttle opens.

Lawyers claiming an electronic defect contend that floor mats or stuck pedals don’t explain the sudden-acceleration incidents that triggered their lawsuits.

‘Sitting Dead Still’

In a Texas lawsuit filed on Jan. 29, plaintiff Alfred Pena said his 2008 Toyota Avalon unexpectedly accelerated at a stop sign on Jan. 14, causing a collision. He wasn’t injured, said Robert Hilliard, an attorney representing Pena. Pena’s wife, Sylvia, had a previous episode of unintended acceleration that didn’t result in an accident, Hilliard said.

Sylvia Pena “was sitting dead still,” and the car accelerated as she released the brake before she touched the gas pedal, Hilliard, of Corpus Christi, Texas, said in an interview.

“My belief is that fixed Toyotas with new pedals will still inadvertently accelerate,” Hilliard said.

NHTSA tested throttle electronics last year in response to a petition from a 2007 Lexus ES 350 owner who had experienced sudden acceleration of his vehicle. The agency denied the petition in October after subjecting the same model of car to “multiple electrical signals” and “magnetic fields.”

‘Exhaustive Testing’

Toyota said at the time that the October decision marked the fifth in which the agency had rejected similar requests to investigate company vehicles for defects including electronics related to unintended acceleration.

“In terms of electronics of the vehicle, we’ve done exhaustive testing and we’ve found no issues with the electronics,” Toyota’s Lentz said on a conference call with reporters Feb. 1.

Toyota, as required by law, stopped selling eight vehicles recalled in the U.S. last week. The company said it will begin fixing accelerator pedals, which were supplied by Elkhart, Indiana-based CTS Corp., this week, with some dealerships preparing to do repairs around the clock.

The Transportation Department and its auto safety agency have been called to testify at two congressional hearings on the handling of the Toyota recalls.

House Hearings

A House Oversight and Government Reform Committee panel will hold a hearing on the recalls on Feb. 10, followed by the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Feb. 25.

Representative Bart Stupak, a Michigan Democrat who serves on both committees scheduled to question Toyota, said in a letter to Lentz that his public statements on Feb. 1 were “different than the representations” Toyota officials made to the Energy and Commerce Committee’s staff last week.

Asked whether Toyota “could be certain that floor mat entrapment and sticking accelerator pedals fully explained” the causes of unintended acceleration, company officials said the “causes of unintended acceleration are ‘very, very hard’ to identify,” Stupak said in a letter today to Lentz.

Toyota executives at the meeting also said sticking pedals are “unlikely to be responsible” for reports of drivers losing control as cars accelerated past 60 miles per hour, Stupak said in the letter. He asked Lentz to “clarify” the differing accounts.

--With assistance from Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles, John Hughes in Washington, Mehul Srivastava in Bangalore and Makiko Kitamura in Tokyo. Editors: Joe Winski, Larry Liebert

To contact the reporters on this story: Angela Greiling Keane in Washington at +1-202-654-1287 or agreilingkea@bloomberg.net; Margaret Cronin Fisk in Southfield, Michigan, at +1-248-827-2947 or mcfisk@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Larry Liebert at +1-202-624-1936 or lliebert@bloomberg.net

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-vehicles.html
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Old February 3rd, 2010, 11:20 PM   #2
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I was going to add some TM to my portfolio but when you have the US Govt. telling people not to drive their Toyota cars, Prius now added to the list and apparently there may be giant lawsuits against them I am going to steer clear for a little bit.

Audi got killed when there were rumors (that were wrong) about unexpected acceleration in the Audi 5000, they were put back so far that it really gave Lexus & Infinity a chance to take hold.

Although I don't think this will be a death blow for Toyota, I don't think it is going to be a minor hiccup.
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Old February 3rd, 2010, 11:37 PM   #3
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Agree w/ lattes. Short term this may continue to be a good short but at some point here in the future there is going to be a GREAT buy opportunity for picking this up for a longgg term hold. This has short term consequences for Toyota, but long term IMO they will be fine, albeit their massive cash position may shrink for awhile lol.

That doesn't mean that Ford isn't the way to go long term though
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Old February 4th, 2010, 02:57 AM   #4
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I think this will cause significant damage to Toyota's SP in the short term. They have now extended the recall to Europe and parts of Asia on a number of models manufactured over a 5 year period. Todays national papers here in UK have a headline DON'T DRIVE YOUR TOYOTA - admittedly all they are doing is 'quoting' US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood but some people will only see the headline and not think further than that.

Has anyone considered that LaHood said what he said as a bit of sleek opportunism at a time of recession to discredit a significant overseas manufacturer in favour of home grown products? Bet they are whooping in Detroit today!

I would say the same is true of the UK press other than the fact we don't have a car industry here any more!!!

I do also agree with Super that whilst this is a good short now, there will reach a point where it is a cheap buy for the long but just consider (as Lattes referred to) how long it took Audi to claw it's way back to favour in North America and that was just a rumour of a problem NOT an admitted one! I think it will take years not months for Toyota to get over this.

Just my view, but good thread Sree.

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Old February 4th, 2010, 10:14 AM   #5
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I think what LaHood said was more to discredit a significant overseas manufacturer who does not use UAW Union Workers, Toyota has many plants here in the South, and NO unions.
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Old February 4th, 2010, 03:51 PM   #6
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I think the short term is really bad for them

Answers to Questions About Prius and the Toyota Recalls

Federal regulators in the United States and Japan opened investigations Thursday into reports of brake problems on the 2010 Toyota Prius. The investigations come as Toyota is about to begin repairing 2.3 million vehicles in the United States that have been involved in a recall for accelerator pedals that could potentially stick. Here are some details about the situation.

Q. What is the problem that led to the Prius investigations?

A. The investigations focus on the anti-lock brake systems on the 2010 Prius, which was introduced in Japan and the United States last spring. There have been 124 reports of problems in the United States, and 77 reports in Japan. The problem does not appear to affect earlier versions of the Prius because the brakes were redesigned for the 2010 model.

In a statement, Toyota said, “Some customers have complained of inconsistent brake feel during slow and steady application of brakes on rough or slick road surfaces when the anti-lock brake system (ABS) is activated in an effort to maintain tire traction. The system, in normal operation, engages and disengages rapidly (many times per second) as the control system senses and reacts to tire slippage.”

Owners are reporting that the brakes fail to work immediately when the car is on a bumpy or slippery surface, or when it drives over potholes. Toyota said Thursday that it had already identified the cause of the problem and corrected it on cars built since January. Nikkei, a Japanese news service, said Toyota planned recall of 270,000 cars in the United States and Japan, but there has been no announcement yet from Toyota.

Q. Are there other investigations involving the Prius?

A. The Prius has been the subject of two earlier investigations by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, but neither led to recalls. An investigation last year focused on its headlights, but there was no recall because only one headlight went out at a time. Some Toyota owners received notices offering to reimburse them for part of the cost if they had already replaced the headlights. In 2005, the agency investigated reports of engine stalling on older Prius models. As a result, Toyota reprogrammed the computers on 75,000 cars.

Q. What is the latest on the cars are involved in the two big recalls that Toyota has announced?

A. Toyota is beginning to send letters to consumers who are involved in the recall for sticking gas pedals. It is asking owners to wait until they receive a notification letter before making an appointment at their dealerships. A number of dealers plan extended hours and some will be open 24 hours a day.

In the floor mat recall, Toyota has begun issuing notices to owners of the Lexus ES 350, IS250 and IS350, as well as the Toyota Camry and Avalon. It said the Corolla, Matrix, Venza, Highlander, Tacoma, Tundra, and Prius be fixed later in 2010.

Q. Which vehicles are involved in the recalls?

A. The sticking pedal recall involves Toyota division vehicles, including all 2009-10 Matrixs, 2005-10 Avalons, 2007-10 Tundras and 2008-10 Sequoia vehicles. Some 2009-10 RAV4s and Corollas, 2007-10 Camrys and 2010 Highlanders models are involved.

No Lexus or Scion vehicles are involved, and the Prius, Tacoma, Sienna, Venza, Solaris, Yaris, 4Runner, FJ Cruiser, Land Cruiser, Highlander hybrid and the Camry hybrid are not involved. Also, Camry, RAV4, Corolla and Highlander vehicles with Vehicle Identification Numbers (VIN) that begin with “J,” meaning that they are built in Japan, are not affected by the accelerator pedal recall.

The floor mat recall involves the 2007 - 2010 Camry, Tundra and ES 350; 2005-2010 Avalon; 2004 to 2007 Prius; 2005 to 2010 Tacoma; 2006 to 2010 IS 250 and IS 350; 2008 to 2010 Highlander; and 2009 to 2010 Venza and Matrix.

Q. What kind of repairs will Toyota make?

A. For the sticking pedal recall, Toyota will install a stainless steel reinforcement bar, like a shim, into the pedal assembly. It is designed to keep the pedal from sticking and will assure that it returns into place. The company says drivers will not notice any different feel to the accelerator pedals.

For the floor mat recall, Toyota has asked owners to remove their mats and not replace them. It plans to reconfigure the accelerator pedal so that it cannot get caught on the floor mats. On Camry, ES 350 and Avalon, Toyota also will reshape the floor beneath the pedals.

The company will install a brake override system onto the involved Camry, Avalon, and Lexus ES 350, IS 350 and IS 250. This system cuts engine power in case the accelerator and brake pedals are applied at the same time. The system already exists on the Prius and other hybrids.

Q. I thought the secretary of transportation said we shouldn’t drive our cars. Is my car safe to drive if it has been recalled?

A. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said he misspoke Thursday when he told owners to stop driving their cars. He said he meant to encourage owners to take their cars to dealers if they had any doubts about their safety. Toyota says the recalled cars are safe to drive.

Q. I’ve been reading reports about the defects, and I think I might have a problem with my car. What should I do?

A. Contact your dealer, contact the car company and file a complaint with the Office of Defects Investigation at N.H.T.S.A. Instructions can be found here. http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/ivoq/ In filing your complaint, be as specific as possible about any incidents in which your car was involved. Complaints to the government are added to the public files on each car model, which also can be viewed at the agency’s Web site.

Q. Which cars take priority for the repairs, the ones with owners or the ones on showroom lots?

A. Owners take priority. In the case of owners whose vehicles were part of an earlier recall involving floor mats, Toyota said both repairs could be performed at once.

Q. What if I’m shopping for a car? Are the Toyotas at dealerships safe?

A. Toyota is not selling the models involved in the recall until they can be repaired. It has not said how long that will take, but it says that dealers will be repairing and releasing vehicles for sale as they are able to do so.
So they are not going to sell the cars that are involved in the recall which means less revenue and potential effect in the next quarter
Q. I bought a Toyota right after it announced the recall, but before it announced it was stopping sales. What should I do?

A. Toyota said it would work with customers on a case-by-case basis. At the very least, the company will repair the vehicle if it is on the recall list.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/bu...questions.html
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Old February 4th, 2010, 11:57 PM   #7
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Well its about time someone picked up on TM's disaster. Been talking about this thing for a week now! Too bad the spreads are too wild, thus i've been watching and waiting to see if we tighten up. Interesting to note - its up 2% AH. hmmm
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Old February 5th, 2010, 12:59 AM   #8
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We have been talking about it in your corner Pat for a week, Sree just decided to start a thread. You need to get you a couch and a fridge set up over there. lol
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Old February 5th, 2010, 01:25 AM   #9
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
We have been talking about it in your corner Pat for a week, Sree just decided to start a thread. You need to get you a couch and a fridge set up over there. lol
Haha u know I was thinking about getting a full bar there - what u think? Maybe put some fake sands and sip my margarita as I trade?

BTW nice quote hehe.
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Old February 5th, 2010, 10:34 AM   #10
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S&P says it may cut Toyota's rating. When this happens we might see an other drop in shareprice.... but the price is up today

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Friday placed its 'AA' long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Japan-based automaker Toyota Motor Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!tm/quotes/nls/tm (TM 72.97, +1.19, +1.66%) and a number of related entities on CreditWatch with negative implications. The CreditWatch placements reflect Standard & Poor's increased concern over the potential negative impact on Toyota's business risk profile of unfolding developments related to recent quality-related issues. A series of Toyota's recent quality-related issues, which started with unintended acceleration caused by non-genuine floor mats and followed by the January recall of the acceleration pedals, has now expanded to include negative publicity over customer complaints about the brake system for the Prius hybrid model, particularly in Japan and the U.S. Standard & Poor's believes that these developments may affect the company's reputation for quality, weakening its competitive position.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-...ing-2010-02-05
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Old February 8th, 2010, 10:11 PM   #11
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Toyota has been on a pretty good size PR/apology campaign, I have seen their commercials on several different networks tonight, and they did a 5 minute youtube apology. The dealers are installing the new shim fixing the gas pedal problem, and I have seen radio, TV and newspaper ads from the local Toyota dealers all saying the right things to reassure the public. I think Toyota has such a long history of quality that this will blow over pretty quickly. This is going to cost them a few billion dollars, but they have a stellar balance sheet with 23 billion in cash/near cash. I think they are a great long term buy under $75 and I will be buying this week.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 09:45 AM   #12
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I totally agree with you Chuck. I brought this here just for the short term in shorting and later on when things settle down then we can change the title of the thread to I am buying instead of I am shorting

Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
Toyota has been on a pretty good size PR/apology campaign, I have seen their commercials on several different networks tonight, and they did a 5 minute youtube apology. The dealers are installing the new shim fixing the gas pedal problem, and I have seen radio, TV and newspaper ads from the local Toyota dealers all saying the right things to reassure the public. I think Toyota has such a long history of quality that this will blow over pretty quickly. This is going to cost them a few billion dollars, but they have a stellar balance sheet with 23 billion in cash/near cash. I think they are a great long term buy under $75 and I will be buying this week.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 10:01 AM   #13
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Hahaha ... gud wan
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Old February 9th, 2010, 12:39 PM   #14
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I bought a few long term $80 calls today for these guys. Now that they are being proactive and going ahead and upgrading all software, I think investors will come crawling back in slowly.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 01:45 PM   #15
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Buying long term calls right now I assume you are paying a high volitily premium. I would be more inclined to buy futures if leverage is what you are after.

Edit: or sell puts.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 03:08 PM   #16
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

Only 35% volatility .. thats not bad. I wouldn't go selling puts - could get your a s s handed to if they continue releasing bad data and things really get messy. Your losses would be at a crazy level.
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Old February 9th, 2010, 04:02 PM   #17
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

What about selling a put-spread, camping the bid-ask spread for at least the first leg of the order? Sort of a "half scalp".

Do brokers have orders that can automate this for you? If not I could automate this with Interactive Brokers.
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Old February 13th, 2010, 09:39 PM   #18
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

By KATE LINEBAUGH

DETROIT—Under fire for a series of safety lapses, Toyota Motor Corp. commissioned a study into the electronics in its vehicles, as the auto maker tries to put to rest concerns that incidents of unwanted acceleration could be caused by electronic failures.

The study being carried out by Menlo Park, Calif.-based engineering research firm Exponent supports Toyota's assertion that there is no evidence of problems in the electronics in Toyota and Lexus products, according to a copy of the study dated Feb. 4 obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

"Exponent has so far been unable to induce, through electrical disturbances to the system, either unintended acceleration or behavior that might be a precursor to such an event, despite concerted efforts toward this goal," concludes the preliminary study which has been shared with lawmakers planning hearings on Toyota's safety record.

As Toyota's image crisis has grown in the face of intense pressure from politicians and safety groups over its mounting recalls, the Japanese auto maker has appeared back-footed. This study is among the first indications that the company is shifting to a more offensive public strategy in addressing the claims of critics.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda has announced a new quality task force that aims to improve relations with regional regulators and improve the company's safety processes.

Lawmakers are focusing on the nature of the sudden acceleration problem in Toyota vehicles and any connection to Toyota vehicles' electronic components, which has been the focus of safety groups.

According to one such group, Safety Research & Strategies Inc., Toyota and Lexus owners have reported 2,262 incidents of sudden acceleration since 1999 resulting in 815 crashes, 341 injuries and 19 deaths. Toyota says it is unable to confirm those figures.

In December, Toyota retained Exponent "to understand customer reports and claims of unintended acceleration in vehicles" which use its electronic throttle-control system. Exponent says Toyota didn't limit the scope or budget of its investigation. A person familiar with the study says testing and analysis by Exponent will continue for several months.

In the initial study, Exponent bought six Toyota and Lexus vehicles all equipped with the electronic throttle-control system.

The evaluation was conducted by engineers and technicians specializing in mechanical, electrical, and automotive engineering. It included a series of tests such as driving tests with anomalies imposed on the electronics and characterizing the sensitivity of the system to aberrations and noise imposed on individual components.

The tests looked at how the electronic sensors in the gas pedal and in the throttle body perform in different vehicles in normal and stressed situations. When failures were induced in these sensors, Exponent says the electronic control module detected the problem.

"Imposing these perturbations resulted in a significant drop in power rather than an increase," Exponent says in the study. "In all cases, when a fault was imposed, the vehicle entered a fail-safe mode."

In the event of any electronic failure, Toyota says its system is designed to default to fail-safe, or limp-home, mode where the engine power is significantly reduced.

Write to Kate Linebaugh at kate.linebaugh@wsj.com
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Old February 15th, 2010, 10:09 AM   #19
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

A lot of people are saying this is short term bad, I have to disagree this is long term bad. IMO a strategy here would be to short TM and go long F, not going to do that one either but my guess is that first half 2010 will be very bad for TM, might be wotlrth looking at again in September
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Old February 15th, 2010, 02:05 PM   #20
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Default Re: Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) (TM)

I am going to try hard not to get into the politics. lol But "Move on's" agenda is purely political. So, other than the politics........I disagree with this statement:

"But with the public pressure about to ensure for Congressional Hearings and an onslaught of political bickering, this can't possibly bode well for investors."

I think it could be very good for investors, the bad publicity and any damning statements will drive the price down (be short) and when the Congressional circus is over, be long. That is simplifying it I know, but I suspect there will be many trading opportunities both ways in the next few months.
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