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  1. #1
    Analyst BuffaloBull's Avatar
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    Default SMA Forecast calculator

    This is a simple calculator i made in excel for anybody who like to trade simple moving averages. Just input the closing prices and it will give you a value for which the price has to hit tomorrow in order to cause a crossover. I created it because I realized that often times i wanted to buy a stock and was waiting for some momentum via a crossover but the stock i was wanting to buy went way above the crossover and I missed out at maximizing profit. This allows you to determine buy stops and sell stops so you can get in intraday via a buy stop or sell stop at the crossover price. Please remember though you will get false positives sometimes, and the closer together the values you pick, the more likely a crossover will occur.

    -REMEMBER- Don't drag cells around, as it screws up the formula ranges, only do copy and paste. Also you may want to check my work before you use it in your trading strategy. I'm pretty sure its correct but you never know. If you find an irregularity, send me a comment with the price data you used and i will try to fix it. Keep a default copy that you work from, so that you have it incase you accidently move some cells around.

    I hope you like it, the technical junkies will.
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    Last edited by BuffaloBull; September 20th, 2009 at 07:19 PM. Reason: Dead link
    It seems if I've learned one thing about trading (not investing), it's that success is built off the hope of the other dreamers. As long as you don't drink the kool-aid, you can take everybody's cash after they all discover it's been laced with Cyanide.

  2. #2
    Pit Master pdtpatrick's Avatar
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    Default Re: SMA Forecast calculator

    Link dead?
    --------------------------------------------------------------

    The only thing worse than being wrong, is staying wrong.

  3. #3
    Analyst BuffaloBull's Avatar
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    Default Re: SMA Forecast calculator

    It's been fixed. You can try it out now.
    It seems if I've learned one thing about trading (not investing), it's that success is built off the hope of the other dreamers. As long as you don't drink the kool-aid, you can take everybody's cash after they all discover it's been laced with Cyanide.

  4. #4
    Super Moderator McMil's Avatar
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    Default Re: SMA Forecast calculator

    Quote Originally Posted by BuffaloBull View Post
    This is a simple calculator i made in excel for anybody who like to trade simple moving averages. Just input the closing prices and it will give you a value for which the price has to hit tomorrow in order to cause a crossover. I created it because I realized that often times i wanted to buy a stock and was waiting for some momentum via a crossover but the stock i was wanting to buy went way above the crossover and I missed out at maximizing profit. This allows you to determine buy stops and sell stops so you can get in intraday via a buy stop or sell stop at the crossover price. Please remember though you will get false positives sometimes, and the closer together the values you pick, the more likely a crossover will occur.

    -REMEMBER- Don't drag cells around, as it screws up the formula ranges, only do copy and paste. Also you may want to check my work before you use it in your trading strategy. I'm pretty sure its correct but you never know. If you find an irregularity, send me a comment with the price data you used and i will try to fix it. Keep a default copy that you work from, so that you have it incase you accidently move some cells around.

    I hope you like it, the technical junkies will.


    Hey BB,

    As a confirmed Tech Junkie and fibulating Fundamentalist I'm always game for something that will give, gain, or generate new and informative insight...

    I just downloaded your brainchild and saved a copy of it. What I'm already wondering is: If given it's propensity to give projective values in the future can it be utilized in a manner similar to Carolyn Bowden's Time Value Projections wherein she is able to predict with some accuracy a future DATE when a price value is expected to occur?

    Her equations are rather complicated and as you can already guess rather expensive to obtain if you want to learn the technique from her. So needless to say I don't have them nor the current knowledge as to how she does this, however, what I do understand, and what is an integral part of her equations are the Candlestick "Pattern" Formations and how to interpret them with accuracy as well as the correct use of Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions and the effective correlation of the Bollinger Bands to the Keltner Channel...

    What I'm thinking is: If given the fact that there are points wherein it is possible for me to "see" where all of these tools converge at relatively minute points of reference, is it possible to take your formula and present that farther out into the future to predict the DATE where they might all converge and predict where the reversal may occur.

    EX:

    The technique of Clustering is created by over laying multiple Fib lines based upon retracements and extensions...where they gather, or cluster, together gives greater strength to that price range: The tighter the cluster the better the accuracy.

    Now there are a number of extraneous variable that may/can affect that; volume and media hysteria only being two, however, these clusters are like a magnet that literally pull the price action to it, up or down.

    Now with just that tidbit of info, as well as all of the other tools in my box what I intend to do over the next couple of weeks is to work historically to see if, applied to any given entity, your cross over calculator can given some evidence of accuracy when used in tandem to these other trading aides, i.e., are there points within the historical data wherein they ALL converge to a validated a turning point?

    If so, then I'll apply it to future looking applications like retracement and extension lines and candle patterns, and yes, contrary to what many people want to believe, the patterns that the candles tend to create are constantly duplicated over and over and are therefore a reliable predictive tool giving detail information into the market breath to which they are applied.

    Anyway, Thanks for taking the time to create it and for presenting it here on the site and if I come up with something that is reliable, as well as predictive, I'll make sure your the first to know and I'll post the results here for the rest of the "family" to use...

    Okay, time to go because while I've been typing CVM had come back nicely and now I look and it's back down to yesterday's close; WTF?

    Mc
    "...you must be like water: Sometimes water moves soft and over; sometimes water moves hard and through; and sometimes water crashes yet harder and destroys...you, my friend, must be like water..."
    (Bruce Lee)

  5. #5
    Analyst BuffaloBull's Avatar
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    Default Re: SMA Forecast calculator

    To be honest I haven't studied Fibonacci retracements that extensively. But if you can incorporate the SMA calculator with them, then great. From what I understand of fibonacci retracements is they are far more accurate in forex as there isn't so much hysteria like in stocks. Programming retracements in excel would be much more difficult, however I've actually started programming custom indicators and strategies in Strategy Desk by TD ameritrade, and have had some success but no silver bullets yet. If you want I would direct you to the Strategy Desk thread assuming you have the program or a similar software. I've found that trading crossovers alone isn't necessarily a good idea, from backtesting. However It better used as a single indicator, rather then the end all indicator. When used in conjuction it could help. The main reason i made this was to buy into a stock that I really liked based on fundamentals when the momentum swings its way. I could imagine that this would really work well if you were a biopharma junkie and only wanted to invest when they started turning north. But to use this as a simple indicator alone with any stock is a bad idea. I noticed with a lot of the picks, even the ones I didn't really understand made on MSB more times than not decided to spike huge within 1 month or less time. If you made a list and setup buy stops for a lot of the picks made based on your favorite SMA, you could make a lot money. Unfortunately I'm really busy with homework to trade stocks too often.
    It seems if I've learned one thing about trading (not investing), it's that success is built off the hope of the other dreamers. As long as you don't drink the kool-aid, you can take everybody's cash after they all discover it's been laced with Cyanide.

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